VICTOR JOECKS: How to tell if Trump blinked with Iran

Politicians don’t usually hide good news. That’s one reason to be concerned about the agreement President Donald Trump has reached with Iran.

On Sunday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that “the Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete.” He announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be open and an end to the U.S. Navy’s blockade. On Monday, he wrote, “Iran has agreed to never have a Nuclear Weapon.”

That remains the most important objective. Americans may not think much about Iran, but the terrorists who still run that nation are obsessed with us. In fact, they want to murder you.

Over the years, this regime and its proxies have killed hundreds of Americans. Here’s a major reason why: Iran’s terrorist leaders believe their country has a key role to play in paving the way for the return of the Twelfth Imam or Mahdi, a messiah-like figure.

“In Twelver Shia theology, the world must be conquered and ruled by Muslims for the Mahdi to return, hence death to American and Israel, and the existence of a thriving Jewish state in land previously ruled by Muslims flies in the face of this ideal,” wrote Tim Orr, who has an M.A. in Islamic Studies at the Islamic College in London.

This makes it imperative to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Soviet Union was deterred by mutually assured destruction. But Iran’s leaders don’t fear physical destruction. They believe it’s a prerequisite for a desired spiritual end state.

This is why Trump’s fierce opposition to Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon is correct. If an agreement with Iran removes its nuclear material, it will be a major accomplishment.

But as of last week, the details of the agreement remain unclear. Any Iranian pledge not to obtain nuclear weapons is worthless without verification. The United States or a trusted partner must physically remove nuclear material from the country and dismantle or destroy its nuclear infrastructure. That appears to be the subject of future negotiations. Uh oh.

On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the deal will allow Iran to sell oil immediately. This brought oil to under $80 a barrel. It may take a while, but this means gas prices should decline. Politically, that will help Trump and Republicans in the midterms.

But it also will help a cash-strapped Iran. The brilliance of Trump’s naval blockade of Iranian oil is that it made Iran share in the financial pain of closing the Strait of Hormuz. Now, Iran will have money to pay its soldiers and fund its terror proxies. Iran’s leaders are likely to conclude that closing the strait is their trump card. Not great — especially if Iran is allowed to impose a de facto toll on shipping.

This doesn’t mean the attacks by America and Israel were pointless. They did real damage to Iran’s military and its nuclear ambitions. But if the agreement gives Iran tangible wins in exchange for the promise of future talks on halting its nuclear ambitions, Trump will have blinked.

In UFC terms, this would be like having Iran’s leadership in a rear-naked choke and then deciding it wasn’t worth the effort to finish the job.