El Niño could bring deadly floods, vicious winds, huge hailstones to Israel

Israel Meteorological Service presents three scenarios to help authorities prepare for events that are ‘low probability’ but would have ‘severe potential impact’

Life-threatening urban flooding, wind gusts of up to 150 kilometers (93 miles) per hour, oversized hailstones and extensive lightning storms could hit Israel as the El Niño phenomenon tightens its grip, the Israel Meteorological Service has warned, in a report intended to help authorities prepare.

In its first detailed report on the likely local effects of El Niño, the service on Thursday presented three specific scenarios: one of short, intense rain lasting up to four hours; prolonged rain lasting 24 to 48 hours; and a “Medicane,” or Mediterranean hurricane.

El Niño is a phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years, during which surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warm up and the global jet stream is disrupted. Predictions are for wetter weather and coastal flooding in the US; severe drought and hotter-than-average temperatures in Australia, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia; disrupted monsoon rains in India; and higher temperatures and a wetter winter in the Mediterranean region.

“Climate change presents a growing challenge for all of humanity and affects all areas of life, from short-term decision-making and preparation for emergency situations to long-term planning,” the report said. “The Meteorological Service identifies an increase in the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events, as well as the appearance of events that were previously considered unlikely in terms of their timing, location, or intensity in Israel.״

It continued, “In the autumn of 2026, an especially powerful  ‘El Niño’ is expected to develop, which may be counted among the strongest El Niño events observed in recent decades.”

Under the first scenario, coastal cities such as southern Ashkelon and Ashdod, central Rishon LeZion, Tel Aviv and Netanya, and northern Haifa and Nahariya would be the worst hit, at any time between September and January 2027. Rain could be accompanied by wind gusts of up to 150 kilometers per hour, hailstones with a diameter of five to seven centimeters (roughly two to 2.75 inches), and intense lightning storms, with damage likely to transportation infrastructure, energy and agriculture.

Under this scenario, the potential for an extreme event can be identified three to five days in advance, the report said, with more accurate data available 24 hours before.

The second scenario of prolonged rainfall — lasting 24 to 48 hours and dropping 270 to 400 millimeters (roughly 10.5 to 15.75 inches) — would threaten the coastal plain, the Shfela lowland area, and the central and northern mountain ranges, the report added. Most likely between November and January, such rain could bring serious urban flooding, flash floods in river basins, road closures and threats to critical facilities, including military airfields.

Although usually smaller and shorter-lived than tropical hurricanes, third-scenario Mediterranean cyclones between September and January could bring storms that drop hundreds of millimeters, as well as winds of up to 120 kilometers (75 miles), and turbulent seas.

The downpours, large hailstones and intense lightning storms would be felt most along the central and southern coastal plain, bringing dangerous urban and flash flooding as stream and river levels rise, and causing severe damage to energy and transportation infrastructure.

In this case, as in the second scenario, the service would be able to flag the potential for such events five to seven days in advance, with more focused data one to three days before.

The IMS said that these are all “low probability” events but have “severe potential impact,” and that with such irregular conditions in the atmosphere, “relying on historical statistics alone may not be enough for preparedness needs. This is especially true when processes of warming and climatic extreme expansion broaden the range of physical possibilities beyond extreme events that have been documented in the past.”