Why India is eyeing a route over China's Xinjiang to get around Pakistan's airspace ban. Here's why it isn't simple

Civil Aviation Minister Kinjarapu Ram Mohan Naidu said on Tuesday that India is in talks with China to use airspace over Xinjiang for commercial flights, a possible workaround for the long detours Indian carriers have flown since Pakistan shut its airspace to them in April 2025. Here is what the proposed route involves, and why it is not a simple fix.

Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian-registered aircraft, and to planes operated or leased by Indian airlines, after the Pahalgam terror attack of April 24, 2025, and the military face-off that followed. Since then, flights from northern and western India bound for Europe and North America have had to detour over the Arabian Sea toward Muscat, adding time and fuel costs. Pakistan’s restriction remains in force and has been extended repeatedly; the current bar is scheduled to run until October 24, 2026.

The cost has been significant for India’s flagship carrier. Air India has put the impact of the closure at about $455 million a year in profit before tax, with fuel costs up by as much as 29 per cent and up to three hours added to some long-haul flights. The airline suspended its Delhi-Washington route in August 2025 and has trimmed passenger and cargo capacity by as much as 15 per cent on routes such as New York-Delhi and Vancouver-Delhi.

What the proposed route looks like

The alternative under discussion runs over Hotan, in southwestern Xinjiang. Under this plan, Indian flights would cross into Chinese airspace via Leh and proceed west toward Central Asia, offering a shorter path for aircraft headed to Europe, North America and Central Asia than the current detour around Pakistan and Iran. Naidu said discussions on the Hotan route have been going on between the two countries for more than a year, adding that India’s external affairs ministry is engaging with China on the matter. He gave no timeline for when, or if, the route might become operational.

Air India has separately estimated that securing the Hotan route could reduce its losses by about $1.13 million a week, and has asked the Indian government to press China diplomatically for access, while also seeking a temporary government subsidy until the Pakistan airspace ban is lifted.

Why the route is harder than it sounds

Several obstacles stand in the way of the plan actually materialising.

The corridor lies over sensitive Chinese military territory. China’s military exercises far greater control over the country’s airspace than most other aviation markets do, and analysts have expressed doubt that Beijing will grant access to a corridor of this kind, given the region’s strategic sensitivity.

The terrain itself is a serious constraint. The targeted airspace runs over some of the world’s highest mountain ranges, which limits the availability of alternate airports for emergency diversions, a significant safety consideration for any long-haul route approved by aviation regulators.

The timing also carries diplomatic weight. Any agreement would need to be finalised against the backdrop of the broader India-China relationship, which has been on an improving trajectory, marked by the resumption of direct flights between the two countries after a nearly six-year gap, with Air India restarting Delhi-Shanghai flights on February 1, 2026, and by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to New Delhi for the BRICS Summit. Even so, the two countries’ broader border dispute and years of strained ties mean any new aviation arrangement is likely to require sustained diplomatic engagement rather than a quick sign-off.

Finally, there is no guarantee the route would fully replace what has been lost. Even if approved, the Hotan corridor is one alternative among several under consideration, and its benefits would depend on the specific flight paths, aircraft range requirements and clearances that both countries agree to, none of which have been settled yet.

Until an agreement is reached, Indian airlines will keep absorbing the added costs of the Pakistan detour, a burden increasingly passed on to travellers through longer journey times and higher fares. Foreign carriers still permitted to fly over Pakistan continue to benefit from more efficient connections in the meantime, giving India an added commercial incentive to see the Xinjiang talks through, even as the practical and diplomatic hurdles remain unresolved.