How crowded has the Indian Ocean become, and what did the Navy chief say on a third aircraft carrier?

Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Krishna Swaminathan said on Sunday that India’s growth this century will depend on the seas. He described the Indian Ocean as an increasingly congested, contested and militarised space. Speaking at the NDTV Defence Summit 2026, he used the West Asia war to argue that distance from a conflict offers no insulation from its consequences. “A disruption even in a distant sea eventually reaches our shores, our homes, our industry, and our economy,” he said.

He began by challenging the common description of India as a continental country with a long coastline. A coastline, he said, is only a geographical feature, and India is a maritime nation in an economic, civilisational, geopolitical and psychological sense. He backed this with figures. Nearly 90 per cent of India’s trade by volume and over 70 per cent by value moves by sea, over 60 per cent of GDP originates in coastal states, and about 18 per cent of the population lives within 50 kilometres of the coast.

The Indian Ocean, he said, matters well beyond India. Nearly one lakh ships transit the region every year, carrying about 30 per cent of the world’s containerised cargo and more than half of its crude oil. It also accounts for 15 per cent of the global fishing catch, 55 per cent of known offshore oil reserves and 40 per cent of offshore natural gas reserves.

That importance, he said, has drawn in outside powers. The region has become one of the world’s most militarised maritime spaces, with several countries maintaining permanent military facilities across it. Between 40 and 50 warships from extra-regional navies are present almost perpetually. The admiral acknowledged that the Chinese Navy is expanding its presence, which he described as a sovereign right under the freedom of navigation, and said the Indian Navy tracks developments constantly.

The third carrier

Asked by NDTV’s Vishnu Som about the Navy’s long-standing wish for a third aircraft carrier, Adm Swaminathan was unequivocal in tone. “I’m absolutely sure the Indian Navy needs a third aircraft carrier, and I’m absolutely sure the government will… give it to us… It’s only a matter of time,” he said. He did not offer a timeline or say where the proposal stands in the approval process. India currently operates two carriers, INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya.

The threats in the region now include unmanned systems alongside ballistic and cruise missiles, he said, and the spread of technology has put them within reach of small non-state actors. He pointed to West Asia, where more than 120 merchant vessels have been attacked over the past two years. After seven months of war, he said, daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to single digits, against a pre-war average of about 125.

On drones, he gave a measured assessment. They have been an important introduction in recent warfare, he said, and the Navy is examining air, surface and underwater systems for surveillance and for carrying weapons. But drones “destroy, they destruct, they disrupt,” he said, and “haven’t yet been decisive.” Their early advantage has eroded as counter-drone systems have improved, which raises their cost. Geography matters too, he added. Distances of 30 to 50 kilometres are large on a land border, where drones are highly useful, but at sea the distances run into hundreds of kilometres.

Adm Swaminathan also described the Navy’s role when the US-Iran war began. Roughly three dozen high-value cargo ships were upstream of the Strait of Hormuz, and a task force of 11 or 12 Navy ships was deployed to bring them out and escort them, after consultations between the Ministries of External Affairs and Defence. “We were not there to escalate any war,” he said, though he acknowledged that operating in a war zone exacts a toll. “That’s what we are trained for,” he said.