U.S. defense sector failing to meet 21st-century challenges

OPINION:

Many of America’s defense systems, including its stealth bombers and fifth-generation aircraft, perform admirably, but U.S. development and deployment of expensive, expendable precision weapons raise significant concerns.

In recent weeks, several examples have demonstrated the military utility and market value of innovative Ukrainian technology. In the initial round of the U.S. Army’s drone dominance competition, the experienced Ukrainian company Skyfall, renowned for its reusable $8,500 bomber drones, achieved an almost flawless score of 99.3, with the two closest competitors in the low 80s. (Both of those were American companies with extensive battlefield experience in the ongoing conflict.)

Shortly thereafter, on March 17, the Ukrainian defense company Swarmer, which specializes in artificial-intelligence-driven software for autonomous drone swarms, astounded observers with a 520% increase on the Nasdaq in its initial public offering price. The company’s value rose further the following day, by 77%, despite a declining market.

The situation in Ukraine presents a different challenge. The pervasive nature of electronic warfare and the abundance of jammers in Ukraine have rendered many U.S. precision weapons ineffective within weeks of deployment. This is a stark contrast with the situation in Iran, where the doctrinal tenets unfolded as expected and precision weapons performed as designed.

In the Persian Gulf region, Iran is employing a strategy to economically cripple the United States by exploiting the cost of U.S. weapons. This strategy involves using inexpensive but effective Shahed drones to exhaust significantly more expensive interceptors and target capabilities worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

This approach is a predictable and common tactic in the war in Ukraine — except in this case, Iran is using the lessons learned from Ukraine’s defensive war against Russia to its advantage.

Raytheon’s Coyote is the preferred American system for countering Shahed-type threats, with a cost ranging from $35,000 to $125,000 per munition. However, this cost may not be a significant advantage in a conflict where Iran seeks to impose financial burdens on the United States and its allies.

The surge in demand for Ukrainian-vetted interceptors, comparable to Black Friday, is straining the supply chain. The average cost of these units is $1,000 to $2,500. Although interceptors receive considerable attention, Ukraine offers even more cost-effective alternatives, such as the $150,000 Sky Sentinel anti-aircraft gun turret.

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This turret, in configurations of 10 to 30, is advertised as providing protection to a city. It is designed to intercept drones and cruise missiles and uses artificial intelligence to identify, track and engage targets, thereby reducing human effort and using inexpensive, readily available .50-caliber ammunition or Ukrainian naval drones equipped with the turret, known as the Predator.

The Predator gun system has been tested against first-person-view drones posing a threat to the battlefield and is poised for deployment to the front lines, where small drones continue to challenge vehicle crews and dismounted infantry.

The $35,000, AI-enabled, automated 7.62-millimeter gun turret is credited with bringing down two Mi-8 helicopters and assisting with a jet. It has seen service with both land- and sea-based units since July, when the Predator was officially codified by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and approved for service with Ukraine’s armed forces.

This marks another step in Kyiv’s push toward automated and AI-enabled air defense solutions. Compare it with its American competitors, which cost substantially more and took more time to develop.

In the realm of directed energy, the U.S. is allocating resources to invest in lasers costing $5 million to $10 million to defend against drones. Conversely, Ukraine is deploying a system that reportedly costs $300,000.

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The Sunray laser, an active, portable counter-drone system developed by Ukraine, has successfully undergone field tests and, as of February, is being deployed to combat Russian unmanned aerial vehicles. This low-cost, silent, mobile system is compact enough to fit in a pickup truck and capable of destroying drones with high-energy beams.

Rather than embracing innovation, there are unconfirmed reports that U.S. firms are attempting to purchase Ukrainian intellectual property at bargain rates or using “capture and kill” tactics to protect prices and market share.

In a war where cost and speed of innovation may be the deciding factors in victory or de facto defeat, the U.S. defense sector proves itself resistant to change. That could well mean ceding the market to foreign competitors. Such a result may be acceptable during the Pax Americana, but that era seems to be over for the foreseeable future.

Russia, Iran, China and North Korea know our Achilles’ heel, and it is irresponsible to our national security to ignore this vulnerability at the expense of profit over mission.

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• Josh Segal is a retired naval intelligence officer who travels frequently to Ukraine and serves as a consultant to the Defense Department, as well as a member of Iron Gate Capital’s Technical Advisory Board.