The hottest year in Earth’s history is coming — scientists say 2027 is the year

The hottest year Earth has ever recorded is likely coming soon — and scientists think they already know when.

The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization puts the odds at 86% that one of the next five years will shatter Earth’s all-time temperature record. Report co-author Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the U.K. Meteorological Office, said 2027 is the most likely candidate, driven by a powerful El Niño — a natural warming of the central Pacific that spikes global temperatures — expected to strengthen and potentially last through 2028.

The WMO report also projects a 91% chance that at least one of those years will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — the threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement as the upper limit of safe warming.

Ms. Seabrook cautioned against viewing that marker as a point of no return. “It’s important to note that 1.5 is not kind of a cliff edge that we’re going to fall off,” she said. “Every kind of 0.1 of a degree has more and more severe impact.”

U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell was more direct: “Global heating is still outpacing global efforts to contain it,” Mr. Stiell said, warning that extreme heat, floods, wildfires and food price shocks are already costing every nation dearly.

Read more:

• Think it’s hot now? The next five years will smash records, U.N. says

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