Back-to-back dry springs leave Netherlands with early drought signs, rising water stress

The Netherlands is experiencing a second consecutive unusually dry spring, with virtually no rainfall, rising temperatures, and increasing evaporation already pushing parts of the country toward early irrigation restrictions, NOS reported. The lack of recovery from last year's drought exacerbates the situation, depleting soils and groundwater levels.

The national precipitation deficit has climbed rapidly again this spring, reaching about 50 millimeters, according to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Climate scientist Lone Mokkenstorm said the country is now among the driest 5 percent of years based on measurements since early April.

“If you look at the measurements since the beginning of April, we are currently in the 5th driest year. And the forecasts show that the trend will continue and may even exceed that,” Mokkenstorm told NOS.

Hydrologist Inge de Graaf of Wageningen University & Research (WUR) said the pattern is no longer unusual. “What we have seen over recent years is that we are increasingly ending up in these dry springs. That is the effect of climate change; these extremes are becoming more frequent,” she said.

The dryness follows a winter that failed to significantly replenish soil moisture. While February was relatively normal in terms of precipitation, parts of March were already dry, and April has seen almost no measurable rainfall so far, according to KNMI observations. Mokkenstorm described the conditions as extreme.

“It has been quite extreme so far,” she told NOS. “You really need a few weeks of normal rainfall to compensate for the deficit. A week of rain will not make a difference.”

“The upper layers do get wet from rain, but that is not enough to reach the deeper layers and groundwater,” De Graaf said. The impacts are expected to become visible in agriculture and nature. Crop water demand is already increasing, and irrigation needs are expected to rise sooner than usual. Vegetation changes are also likely.

De Graaf said, "If it doesn't rain, everything dries out, and the grasses with shallow roots turn yellow first." The KNMI also reports that the risk of wildfires is already relatively high.

Authorities are already preparing for possible irrigation restrictions in some regions due to the high risk of drought and wildfires exacerbated by the lack of rain. De Graaf called that a prudent step. “I think it is very smart that such action is already being considered. That is a development of recent years, in response to the drought we have seen. And it is necessary. In a changing climate, we need to realize that we are going to learn to live with such conditions.”

Looking ahead, forecasts show little rain over the next two weeks. While summers in the Netherlands typically become hotter and drier following a dry spring due to reduced soil moisture and evaporation, experts say outcomes remain uncertain.

De Graaf noted that conditions are unlikely to match the extreme drought of 2025, which was the third driest spring on record since at least 1906. “The outlook again points to drought, but likely less extreme than last year,” she said. “Low groundwater levels do make the system vulnerable, but our models currently indicate mostly mild drought conditions for river discharge, although there is uncertainty in that.”