Dutch intelligence services did not see Russian invasion of Ukraine coming

The Dutch intelligence services, AIVD and MIVD, did not see the Russian invasion of Ukraine coming. Until the very last minute, they remained convinced that it was unlikely Russia would invade Ukraine. This was largely due to information from a “unique source” within the Russian security apparatus and close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Volkskrant reports in a reconstruction of the months leading up to the invasion on February 24, 2022.

The newspaper spoke to 19 involved intelligence officers and high-ranking officials. "This is the biggest war on European soil since the Second World War. And we didn't see it coming. What a fuck-up,” one of the sources said.

The Dutch intelligence that Russia would not invade even reached then-United States President Joe Biden. The U.S. had been warning of an impending Russian invasion since the fall of 2021. By presenting its intelligence, the Netherlands hoped to prevent a war.

But in hindsight, many involved believe that it was precisely this move that cost the Netherlands its only small chance to prevent the war. According to the Volkskrant, they argue that if the U.S. and Europe had jointly informed Russia that they were prepared to impose extreme military and economic reprisals, this could have deterred Putin from invading.

The belief that Russia wouldn’t invade also stopped European countries from providing additional support to Ukraine in the months leading up to the invasion, a senior official said.

The Volkskrant presented its findings to both the MIVD and AIVD. An AIVD officer responded anonymously on behalf of both services. The officer said that the Dutch services had based the analysis that a Russian invasion was “unlikely” on a “unique source” close to Putin. That source had “proven” themself in the past by offering valuable intelligence from the Russian security apparatus to the Dutch services for years, the officer said.

According to the AIVD and MIVD intelligence, the Russian troop buildup was a move to increase pressure in negotiations with the West. It would not come to an actual attack, because then Putin would lose his negotiation position.

The Americans had a different view. They had been warning for months that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine and called it not a matter of if, but when, Russia would launch the attack. The U.S. had a source in the Kremlin who was likely even closer to Putin.

The AIVD and MIVD even held talks with the American intelligence agency CIA, but they could not figure out why their analyses diverged so much. It was only after Russian troops had entered Ukraine that it became clear to the Dutch services that their source in the Russian security apparatus had been unaware of Putin’s attack plans.

After the invasion, the Dutch services learned through intelligence that the top of the Russian security apparatus was just as surprised by the invasion as they were. Apparently, only a very small group of trusted confidants knew about the war plans. The AIVD and MIVD’s source fell outside this group; the U.S. source likely did not.

In addition to their unwavering trust in their Russian source, the AIVD and MIVD were also influenced by skepticism of the American analysis due to the Iraq War in 2003. Back then, the U.S. Secretary of State shared incorrect intelligence regarding Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. The subsequent invasion of Iraq lasted decades and cost hundreds of thousands of lives.

The Volkskrant sources added that Germany and France were also skeptical about Russia invading Ukraine. There was a lot of fear that the U.S. was trying to drag Europe into a war, a senior official said. Even Ukraine didn’t believe Russia would actually invade.

Only three weeks before the invasion did the AIVD and MIVD started questioning their analysis. This happened when it became clear that the Russian army was bringing large quantities of blood plasma to the front. The services then changed their analysis from an invasion was “unlikely” to “possible.”

In retrospect, some of the Volkskrant’s sources consider the failure to see the Ukraine war coming a serious intelligence blunder. A senior AIVD official who spoke to the newspaper does not want to go that far. But they did say that the intelligence services’ perception of Putin has definitely changed. “I think it is fair to say that we would view Putin with more suspicion now. We assumed too much that Putin was a rational actor.”