China’s energy security may be put to its first true test in 2026 with the seizure of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January and joint U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran beginning in late February. These events have disrupted two sources of China’s oil supply. Coupled with damage to energy infrastructure across parts of the Middle East as the conflict unfolds, oil prices jumped to more than $100 a barrel when markets opened on March 9 before falling back, but are still up from roughly $60 at the start of the year.